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The power prognosticator

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IPv6: The new Y2K dilemma

By Carolyn Duffy Marsan

Forget Y2K. The next big fix for net managers to worry about is IPv6.

Just as companies are phasing out their private data networks and migrating everything to the Internet, they're finding out that the current version of the Internet Protocol - IPv4 - is running out of address space.

The shortage of Internet addresses is particularly keen overseas. Take China, for example. The world's most populous country has a smaller block of IPv4 address space than Stanford University. Even in the U.S., addresses are getting harder to come by as more people hook up their Palm Pilots and set-top boxes to the 'Net.

IPv6 solves this problem by replacing the 32-bit addressing scheme in IPv4 with 128-bit addressing, which allows for a virtually unlimited number of Internet addresses.

IPv6 has the makings of a news story that even the mainstream press can understand. In fact, CNN, the Associated Press and The New York Times have all run IPv6 stories in recent weeks. IPv6 will be the topic of choice for all those Y2K reporters once they've beaten that horse to death.

The similarities between IPv6 and Y2K are striking:
  • Catastrophe may hit if the fix isn't done soon enough. Some Internet leaders are painting scary scenarios for the U.S. economy and its engine of growth - the Internet - if IPv6 isn't rolled out in time.
  • We've known about this problem for a long time but haven't done much to fix it. The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF) is finalizing the IPv6 standards after six years of work. However, only research networks are using IPv6.
  • Some key members of the community are in denial about this problem. ISPs, in particular, are in no hurry to migrate to IPv6 even though they're the ones that need to sign up new Internet customers and dole out addresses.
  • The seriousness of the issue and the best way to fix it are hotly contested. Respected Internet engineers and developers are on both sides of the IPv6 debate. Some recommend migrating networks to IPv6 as soon as possible, while others say IPv6 will never happen.
  • Getting your network fixed will be time-consuming and expensive. Few commercial products are IPv6-compliant today, and hardly any tools are available to help you make the transition.

What will happen regarding IPv6 in the year ahead?

Get ready for more noise about the protocol. The IPv6 Forum is ramping up and will be creating a buzz about IPv6, as will the Internet engineering and user communities. Given that it's an election year and all the candidates are trying to attract high-tech campaign contributions, it's not that far-fetched to imagine congressional hearings on the status of the IPv6 migration.

Look for IPv6-compliant products to hit the market. Cisco is expected to ship a commercial version of its IPv6 software next year. The pressure will then be on Microsoft to support IPv6 in an upcoming release of Win 2000.

More tools for transitioning networks from IPv4 to IPv6 will come out of the IETF, whose latest prediction is that IPv6 will roll out first at the edge of the Internet - on corporate networks - and then the backbone will be upgraded.

My advice to network managers: Be ready to respond to questions about IPv6. If the buzz gets strong enough, be prepared for your CEO or shareholders to start asking questions about your strategy for migrating the corporate network to IPv6. And start squirreling away dollars now so you can afford the network upgrade if and when the time comes.

Related links

Contact Senior Editor Carolyn Duffy Marsan

Other recent articles by Marsan

Internet pioneer: IPv6 transition needed
Internet pioneer Vint Cerf argues that network managers need to start making the transition to IPv6 immediately. Network World, 10/25/99.

New protocol sneaks IPv6 traffic over the 'Net
A look at a way to encapsulate IPv6 traffic in existing IPv4 networks. Network World, 11/15/99.

Stillborn IPv6 offers no compelling reasons to switch
Joel Snyder's view. Network World, 9/27/99.

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