OK, this year I'm a little older and wiser, so I'm hoping these predictions will hit the mark:
Prediction 1: Enterprises will be slow to adopt 802.11a products.
Initial surges in 802.11a adoption will be from techies and the small office/home office markets, where 802.11a's higher speeds are attractive for use in video and audio streaming applications. Some enterprises are wary of the technology, though, because handheld devices will have to be equipped with 802.11a connectivity (either through new devices or PC cards, for example). Companies with large deployments of 802.11b devices out in the field might not like that. Plus, the 802.11g standard that promises faster speeds with backward compatibility to 802.11b looms ahead. Still, the introduction of dual 802.11a/802.11b access points may convince reluctant companies to try the faster standard since they won't have to rip up their 802.11b infrastructure.
Prediction 2: Bluetooth will finally get a look from the enterprise.
Like personal digital assistants, Bluetooth will be a technology that invades the enterprise via end users, as it benefits them more than the company. The introduction of Bluetooth to cell phones and PDAs will finally drive adoption among other devices and products. Prices will come down to a more reasonable level, as these other devices add Bluetooth functionality. Bluetooth access points (where they compete with 802.11b) will not go anywhere, as enterprises will stick with 802.11b, leaving Bluetooth access points as a niche product.
Prediction 3: Palm will stabilize.
Palm will continue to lose market share to Pocket PC devices, but it may stabilize with the introduction of new devices that have better wireless capabilities (for both wireless WAN and wireless LAN features). They will finally refocus efforts on the enterprise and give Pocket PC a run for its money, slowing Microsoft's momentum.
Prediction 4: Small wireless ISPs will go out of business as they run out of cash.
They will be swooped up by larger ISPs who want a wireless entry point, or by carriers that want to grab customers or get new revenue for wireless wide-area data services.
Prediction 5: We will finally get a look at 3G wireless services.
Major carriers will continue to roll out service slowly to different parts of the country. Expect Sprint, Verizon and AT&T to be among the leaders in these faster services. It will be interesting to see how they market the services, whether they will play up faster data or just mention improved sound quality.
Prediction 6: A Blackberry/phone device will appear.
Research in Motion will add some kind of wireless phone feature to a new device that will run on a wireless carrier's General Packet Radio Service network, giving BlackBerry addicts a chance to have a phone to go along with their 2-way device.
Prediction 7: Laptops will get faster and smaller. (I know - that's an easy one.)
OK, that's it for me. Once again, I'm holding a contest. Please send me five predictions on mobile computing issues. We'll hold a random drawing at the end of 2002 and give away another neat prize. The best predictions will be posted in a future newsletter, so you can see along with me what our readers are thinking. The deadline for the contest is Jan 31.
Send your predictions to kshaw@nww.com
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Keith Shaw is Reviews Editor at Network World. In addition, he writes the "Cool Tools" column, which looks at gizmos, gadgets and other mobile computing devices.
You can reach Keith at kshaw@nww.com.
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