Predictions for 2003

It's the time of year for analysts to make predictions, and I plan to be no different. Here are my predictions about the evolution of the messaging market during 2003:

* Because the impact of spam on employee productivity is a leading cause of concern for most enterprises (a survey we conducted in November found that 72% of enterprises are very concerned about spam's impact on the productivity of their users), antispam tools will be a key area of investment in 2003. Consequently, I believe spam will become mostly a nonissue by the end of 2003. That's not to say that spam won't exist by year-end - there might be more spam than ever by that time - but the combination of IT investments in antispam capabilities and a slew of new and better antispam products will significantly reduce the impact of spam on the typical corporate user to relatively low levels.

* Antipornography filtering systems will replace antispam filters as the leading newsmaker in the message content filtering area during 2003. Purveyors of porn-related spam are becoming more aggressive in terms of the quantity and raunchiness of their content, so much so that they will begin to get the attention of IT and legal departments to a much greater extent than they currently do. Consequently, enterprises will need to eliminate this content to protect themselves from potential sexual harassment litigation and will focus on technology to help them do that.

* The push to archive e-mail and instant-messaging content will continue through 2003. Our research shows that only about 20% of large organizations keep critical messaging system data for more than 90 days, and that most of these organizations rely upon users to back up their own critical data. Although financial services firms, motivated by the regulatory attention being paid to them, are driving much of the interest in message archiving, this will spread to other industries during 2003 and spur greater attention to keeping data longer and with greater accessibility.

I'd like to get your thoughts on what you see as the most important areas in messaging in 2003, as well as your thoughts on my predictions. Please e-mail me at: michael@ostermanresearch.com .

Michael D. Osterman is the principal of Osterman Research, a market research firm that helps organizations understand the markets for messaging, directory and related products and services. He can be reached by clicking here.

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