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Home networks in 2005

Predictions and challenges for the new year
HomeLAN Adventures By Keith Shaw , Network World , 12/20/2004
Keith Shaw
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Thought you installed a lot of home network equipment in 2004? Wait ‘til 2005. Here are our predictions for what's ahead:

Prediction 1: Wireless 802.11a will gain traction in the home; power line and wired Ethernet will continue to make in-roads.

The wireless network vendors did a great job convincing consumers to unwire their PCs and laptops. But streaming television content from one TV to another requires technology that current wireless standards handle poorly or not at all. We expect CE vendors, lured by a clean band and high performance, to choose 802.11a (and possibly pre-802.11n) to handle high-bandwidth traffic.

Wireless coverage holes and even security issues continue to make power line network gear a good complement. But there’s still a strong case for Ethernet, too. With increasing numbers of devices adding an Ethernet port, we expect router and gateway makers to add more ports to keep up. Wireless will still be the main connectivity route for mobile devices, but for stationary devices, Ethernet will remain popular. We expect to see some 8-port wireless routers for a consumer audience in 2005.

Prediction 2: The PC as home entertainment hub will continue to gain steam.

One look at the partnership between Microsoft and Intel (www.digitaljoy.com) shows you how serious they are about controlling the living room. The challenge will come in convincing people their “digital home” needs a new computer. Power users can turn their existing equipment into a "media center" with a TV tuner card, some digital video recording software and other third-party tools. And you can be sure Sony, Panasonic and Toshiba won't take this affront to their market lying down -- they'll want to make sure that their equipment (TVs, stereo systems, set-top boxes) stays in the center of the entertainment universe.

We're not predicting the end of the Media Center PC (too much money and marketing dollars are in play). However, prices do need to come down to drive consumer interest. With media streaming available by other means (such as via TiVo or a wireless media receiver), Microsoft and Intel need to design a Media Center PC that’s more than a new computer with some interesting features.

Prediction 3: The videophone will finally see some success.

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