I haven't quite decided whether it's cutting-edge analysis or simply wishful thinking. You know what I mean: all those stories about how, this time, Google is out to topple Microsoft from its perch. Mapping, desktop search, blogging and now knowledge-worker productivity software have all been touted as the battleground.

Yes, there are people who read the recent "I'm OK, You're OK" press releases from Google and Sun singing the praises of OpenOffice and actually think that Google intends to offer some sort of subscription-style, Web-based service for word processing and spreadsheets! The only thing is OpenOffice is desktop, not Web-based.

I'm sure that Google would find a way to offer Web-based word processing and more provided it fit into the overall Google revenue model, but so far that doesn't seem possible. Google really does do things very differently from Microsoft, especially when it comes to revenue. Otherwise, the two companies are remarkably similar - both are driven to create new ways to earn money consistent with their chosen models.

We've seen that Microsoft would love to move from a retail philosophy of selling software one box at a time to a subscription model. The subscription model gives Microsoft a steady predictable revenue flow. The actual method of software delivery doesn't matter - CDs in a retail box, downloads from a Web site or pushed-out updates automatically delivered and installed all fit within the model. The important thing, from Microsoft's viewpoint, is that people continue to renew their licenses and subscriptions.

For Google, the revenue model is advertising. Google search, Google mail, Google groups, Google maps and all the other Googles are driven by advertising revenue from context-sensitive displays of links. Calling up a blank page in a word processor is, well, blank - there are no keywords to which to link ads.

No, as I see it Microsoft has little to fear from Google in the near future. Theirs isn't the battle of Coke vs. Pepsi, but more like Charmin vs. Cheerios - both can succeed within the larger confines of the technology supermarket. Google's chief competitor would be someone else pursuing the same revenue stream: content of all types driving advertising sales. The Walt Disney Co. has more to fear from Google than Microsoft does.